WDPN31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W WARNING NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 020000Z JUL TO 070000Z AUG 2006.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
255 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
   B. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN 
PLACE TO THE NORTH OF TS 07W. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE WEAKNESS CURRENTLY 
OVER EASTERN CHINA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT ALLOWING THE RIDGE
TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF AND CAUSE TS 07W TO TRACK MORE WESTERLY NEAR 
TAU 72. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE 
STEERING RIDGE RESULTING IN A POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD GROUPING OF 
DYNAMIC AIDS. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE IN THE NEAR TERM
AND THEN ON A CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE AIDS. 
   C. INTENSIFICATION AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IS EXPECTED IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT WITH AN 
EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS RE-
MAINED IN PLACE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM PREVENTING A POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
CHANNEL FROM LINKING WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CHINA
KEEPING RAPID INTENSIFICATION FROM OCCURRING.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 012203Z QUIKSCAT PASS AND 
020000Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMA-
TOLOGY FOR A SMALL- TO AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
   E. THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CHINA IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AFTER TAU 72 ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT THE TRACK OF TS 07W BACK TO THE WEST. INTER-
ACTIONS WITH LAND WILL WEAKEN THE STORM AND THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN 
DISSIPATING OVER LAND BY TAU 96.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//
NNNN


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