WDPN31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W (KAEMI) WARNING NR 25//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 240000Z TO 270000Z JUL 2006.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 06W (KAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD 
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
   B. THE STORM HAS TRACKED MORE WESTWARD OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS
AS THE SUBTROPICAL TO THE NORTH OF TY 06W BUILDS WESTWARD. A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TAKING 
TY 06W OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF TAIWAN BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36. THE 
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL WELL NORTHEAST OF HONG
KONG AND DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, JGSM, JTYM, WBAR, TCLAPS,
UKMO AND AFWA MM5 ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST SCENARIO
THROUGH TAU 24 BUT DIVERGE THEREAFTER. A POLEWARD GROUPING CONSISTS
OF WBAR, AFWA MM5, EGRR, AND NOGAPS, WHILE AN EQUATORWARD GROUPING
CONSISTS OF NCEP GFS, JGSM, AND JTYM. DIVERGENCE IN THE DYNAMIC AIDS
IS DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERN
STEERING RIDGE. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMIC
AIDS.
   C. A 240018Z SSMIS PASS DEPICTED AN EMBEDDED CENTER, WITH MOST OF
THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION DISPLACED EQUATORWARD DUE TO MODERATE
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. MODERATE SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 24
INHIBITING INTENSIFICATION. INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN WILL CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 24 AND THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE OVER CHINA 
BY TAU 72. HOWEVER, IF TY 06W DEVIATES SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF TAIWAN, SOME 
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ABATES.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONS AND A
232205Z WINDSAT PASS. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR
AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//

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