WDPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W (KAEMI) WARNING NR 17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 220000Z TO 270000Z JUL 2006.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 06W (KAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 595 NM SOUTH
OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
   B. THE STORM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STEERING RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF OKINAWA.
GIVEN THE OBSERVED TREND IN THE TRACK OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS COMBINED
WITH UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS, IT SEEMS LIKELY THE RIDGING
NORTH OF TY 06W IS STRONGER THAN MANY OF THE FORECAST AIDS INDICATE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS THEREFORE WEIGHTED TOWARD THE EQUATORWARD 
GROUPING OF OBJECTIVE AIDS INCLUDING NGPS, GFDN, AND WBAR. THIS 
EQUATORWARD GROUPING MAINTAINS A STRONGER RIDGE AND DELAYS THE
PROJECTED POLEWARD TURN IN RESPONSE TO MIDLATITUDE TROUGHING BREAKING
DOWN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STEERING RIDGE. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, WITH LESS EMPHASIS
PLACED ON THE NCEP GFS, JGSM, COAMPS, AND AFWA MM5.
   C. TY 06W HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS DESPITE MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INDUCED BY THE SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS WESTWARD INTO A REGION OF REDUCED SHEAR A BIT DEEPER INTO THE 
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. IN FACT, A 220002Z SSMI PASS DEPICTS A PARTIAL
EYE FEATURE LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. 
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 212101Z WINDSAT PASS. FORECAST
WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM AND
REFLECT CONVECTION WEIGHTED TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN STORM QUADRANT.
   E. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH TAIWAN AND CHINA. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD AFTER LANDFALL DUE TO AN AMPLIFYING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ASIA.  
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//
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