WDPN31 PGTW 151500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W WARNING NR 28// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 151200Z TO 181200Z MAY 2006. A. TYPHOON (TY) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. B. TY 02W HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED EAST OF TAIWAN. EXTRA- TROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BEGIN AROUND TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM IS IM- PACTED BY A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CHINA. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AFWA MM5, COAMPS, NCEP GFS, JGSM, JTYM, EGGR, TCLAPS, AND WBAR, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. C. TY 02W WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO A REDUCTION IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND AS THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST USHERS IN AN UNFAVORABLE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. EXTRA- TROPICAL TRANSITION COMMENCING AROUND TAU 48 AND LANDFALL SHORTLY THEREAFTER WILL WEAKEN THE STORM SIGNIFICANTLY. D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 151058Z SSMI SATELLITE PASS. FORECAST WIND RADII REFLECT INCREASING SHEAR ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM AND THE BEGINNING OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AT TAU 48. 3. FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE// NNNNHTTP/1.1 200 OK Date: Mon, 15 May 2006 19:01:02 GMT Server: Apache Content-Length: 0 Connection: close Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8