WDPN31 PGTW 110300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W WARNING NR 10// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 110000Z TO 160000Z MAY 2006. A. TYPHOON (TY) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. B. TY 02W CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AFWA MM5, COAMPS, NCEP GFS, JGSM, JTYM, EGRR, TCLAPS AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR AND COAMPS. THESE TWO MODELS DEPICT A POLEWARD TURN BEFORE CROSSING THE PHILIPPINES. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. C. TY 02W WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNTIL TAU 36 WHEN IT WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH LAND INFLUENCES WHICH WILL AFFECT THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW. D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM. E. ONCE THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA IT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN A POLEWARD DIRECTION TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY A TROUGH MOVING OVER SOUTHEASTERN ASIA. TY 02W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN INTENSIFYING AGAIN AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE PHILIPPINES AND ENTERS A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFI- CATION. 3. FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA// NNNN