WDPN31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W
/WARNING NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 061200Z TO 081200Z MAR 2006.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES WEAKENING
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE CYCLONIC
TURNING.
   B. TD 01W CONTINUES TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD EMBEDDED WITHIN
BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. A SLIGHT TURN TO THE NORTH-
WEST IS FORECAST AFTER TAU 24 IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST. TD 01W IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
OVER LAND BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, EGRR, JGSM, AND WBAR ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAIABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. THE LOSS OF LOW LEVEL ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
HAS HINDERED ANY INTENSIFICATION OF TD 01W. TD 01W WILL INTENSIFY
BRIEFLY EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER
TAU 24 AS IT APPROACHES THE PHILIPPINES.
3. FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//
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