WDPN31 PGTW 060300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 01W /WARNING NR 09// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 060000Z TO 090000Z MAR 2006. A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM SOUTHEAST OF PALAU, HAS BEEN RELOCATED SOUTHWEST FROM LAST WARNINGS POSITION. B. TD 01W IS LOCATED AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 5.1N 137.5E. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT POSITION DATA. THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD 700 MB STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS WILL RE- SULT IN A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, GFDN, COAMPS, AFWA MM5, JGSM, JTYM, EGRR AND WBAR ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO DUE TO VARYING DEGREES OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND DIFFERENT 700 MB RIDGE ORIENTATION. MODEL GUIDANCE ON THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY POOR, LEANING TO THE SIDE OF OVER-DEVELOPMENT AND A MUCH FASTER THAN OBSERVED WESTWARD TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH EMPHASIS PLACED ON PERSISTENCE AND A MORE SLOWLY DE- VELOPING SYSTEM THAN FORECAST. C. THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH 01W IS WEAK AND NOT WELL DEVELOPED DUE TO LESS THAN IDEAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STAY BELOW TROP- ICAL STORM STRENGTH THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS DUE TO THE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE. 3. FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE// NNNN