WDPN31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W
/WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 040300Z TO 041500Z MAR2006.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM

EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
   B. TD 01W IS TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY AN EXITING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
EAST OF JAPAN. RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST
AND WILL RESULT IN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK PAST TAU 24. THIS TRACK
WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF NCEP GFS, NOGAPS, WBAR, EGRR AND JGSM ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EGRR,
WHICH IS AN EASTWARD OUTLIER. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CON-
SENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. 
   C. TD 01W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH ESPECIALLY SLOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR PERIOD DUE 
TO A MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND ENHANCED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
BRINGING COOLER AIR TOWARDS THE SYSTEM.
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE
TO LARGE SIZED SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//
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