WDPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 01C WARNING NR 65//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 050000Z TO 061200Z SEP 2006.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01C (IOKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
   B. TS 01C IS CURRENTLY ON A NORTHWARD TRACK AND HAS CONTINUED TO
ACCELERATE TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TS 01C WILL BEGIN TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
BY TAU 12 AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. INCREASED 
INTERACTION WITH A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, CURRENTLY OVER THE SEA OF
JAPAN, AS IT MOVES EASTWARD WILL ENHANCE THE NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OF
TS 01C THROUGH TAU 36. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, JGSM, JTYM, EGRR, TCLAPS, AFWA MM5, COAMPS,
AND WBAR, ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS RECURVATURE SCENARIO
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TS 01C CONTINUES
TO MAINTAIN GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 01C IS TRACKING INTO AN UNFA-
VORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER, MORE STABLE AIR ON
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASING INTO THE LOW TWENTIES. THE
CONVECTIVE BANDS OF TS 01C ARE SHOWING INDICATIONS OF THIS WEAKENING
TREND WITH LESS DEEP CONVECTION IN THE OUTER BANDS. TS 01C HAS BEGUN
TO MAKE AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSISTION (XT), AND IS EXPECTED TO COM-
PLETE XT BY TAU 36. HOWEVER, TS 01C WILL REMAIN AN INTENSE EXTRA-
TROPICAL SYSTEM BEYOND TAU 36. 
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 041913Z QUIKSCAT PASS.
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE- TO
LARGE-SIZED SYSTEM. 
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//
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Date: Tue, 05 Sep 2006 06:05:37 GMT
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