WDPN31 PGTW 020300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 01C WARNING NR 53// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 020000Z TO 070000Z SEP 2006. A. TYPHOON (TY) 01C (IOKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1275 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. B. TY 01C IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERI- PHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TY 01C THROUGH TAU 72, CAUSING TY 01C TO CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, GFDN, JGSM, JTYM, EGRR, COAMPS, WBAR, AND TCLAPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO THROUGH 72 HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. C. THE INTENSITY OF TY 01C HAS REMAINED STEADY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS, AFTER A SLIGHT DECREASE IN INTENSITY WHILE BEGINNING AN EYE- WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. INTENSITY WILL REMAIN CONSTANT FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH MINOR WEAKENING THEREAFTER AS TY 01C ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. CONTINUED FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM FROM SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENING. D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 011847Z QUIKSCAT PASS. FORE- CAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE TO LARGE- SIZED SYSTEM. E. TY 01C IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TURNING NORTHWARD NEAR TAU 96 AS IT REACHES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH MID-LATITUDE TROUGHING OVER JAPAN. THE TIMING OF THIS RECURVATURE IS DEPENDENT ON THE SPEED AND DEPTH OF THE ADVANCING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER JAPAN AND THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SUB- TROPICAL RIDGE. NOGAPS, GFS AND EGRR HAVE ALL DEPICTED A POLEWARD TURN SLIGHTLY SOONER THAN IN THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS TREND WILL BE MONITORED IN FUTURE RUNS. INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN TY 01C IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. FORECAST TEAM: DELTA// NNNNHTTP/1.1 200 OK Date: Sat, 02 Sep 2006 09:23:22 GMT Server: Apache Content-Length: 0 Connection: close Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8