WDPN31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 01C WARNING NR 49//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 010000Z TO 060000Z SEP 2006.
   A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 01C (IOKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
145 NM NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
   B. STY 01C IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE STORM. SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THIS RIDGE IS
BUILDING WESTWARD, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE STORM TO CONTINUE
TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, GFDN, JGSM, JTYM,
EGRR, COAMPS, AND TCLAPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS, WHICH DEPICTS A MORE POLEWARD TRACK.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON COAMPS.
   C. STY 01C IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY IN THE NEAR TO
MEDIUM TERM AS THE STORM ENTERS AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO
THE NORTH. HOWEVER, EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW AND HIGH SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVENT THE STORM FROM WEAKENING
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH TAU 72.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 312104Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
AND A 311912Z QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON
CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE TO LARGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
   E. STY 01C IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A SLOW TURN TOWARD A MORE
NORTHWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 96 AS A SERIES OF MID-LATITUDE TROUGHS
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE STORM
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLOWLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//
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