WDPN31 PGTW 310300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 01C WARNING NR 45// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 310000Z AUG TO 050000Z SEP 2006. A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 01C (IOKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. B. STY 01C CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, COAMPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, JTYM, EGRR, TCLAPS, AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS AND TCLAPS. COAMPS DEPICTS AN IMMEDIATE, SHARP POLEWARD TURN AND TCLAPS FORECASTS AN EQUATORWARD TURN AFTER TAU 48. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON THE COAMPS AND TCLAPS OUTLIERS. C. STY 01C IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN STATUS AS A SUPER TYPHOON THROUGH TAU 48, AFTER WHICH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 302117Z SSMI/S MICROWAVE PASS AND AUTOMATED SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS FROM WAKE ISLAND. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE TO LARGE-SIZED SYSTEM. E. PAST TAU 72, THE OBJECTIVE AIDS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. EGRR FORECASTS SLOWER, WESTWARD MOTION WITH STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH PREVENTING A QUICK RECURVATURE. NOGAPS, GFS, AND NCEP GFS PRESENT A RECURVATURE SCENARIO, BUT DISAGREE ON THE TIMING OF OF THIS RECURVATURE. THE GFDN AND GFS FORECAST A FASTER MOVING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENING THE STEERING RIDGE AND INDUCING A NORTHWARD TURN AROUND TAU 120 WELL EAST OF JAPAN. IN CONTRAST, NOGAPS DEPICTS A SLOWER MOVING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, WITH RECURVATURE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER TAU 120. THE NOGAPS SCENARIO WOULD ALLOW STY 01C TO PASS CLOSER TO JAPAN. THE TAU 72 TO TAU 120 FORECAST TRACK SPLITS THESE REPRESENTATIONS AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA// NNNN HTTP/1.1 200 OK Date: Thu, 31 Aug 2006 08:17:19 GMT Server: Apache Content-Length: 0 Connection: close Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8