WDPN31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 140000Z TO 170000Z NOV 2005.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 24W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF TANDAG, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
   B. TD 24W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RE-
TREAT IN ADVANCE OF A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH THAT WILL ERODE ITS WESTERN
EXTENT AND ALLOW A TURN TO A MORE POLEWARD DIRECTION AFTER TAU 24. TD
24W WILL CONTINUE IN THIS POLEWARD DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. A VERY LIM-
ITED NUMBER OF DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON PERSISTENCE IN THE NEAR TERM AND ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
   C. WHILE TD 24W IS IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW,
ESPECIALLY POLEWARD AND WESTWARD, THE AREA IS UNDER MODERATE TO HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 72 ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DE-
CREASE. THIS DECREASE IN SHEAR OVER TIME, COMBINED WITH EXCELLENT DI-
FFLUENCE ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY 
THROUGH TAU 72.
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE
SIZED SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//
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