WDPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W WARNING NR 18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 111200Z TO 131200Z NOV 2005.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 23W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
275 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
   B. TD 23W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM. AS TD
23W MOVED OFF OF LUZON, PHILIPPINES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, IT HAS
REMAINED WEAK. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS VERY BROAD AND
DISORGANIZED WITH THE ONLY CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF COAMPS, EGRR, GFDN, GFS,
JGSM, JTYM, MM5, NOGAPS, TCLAPS, AND WBAR ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AS WELL AS A CONSENSUS OF
ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON TCLAPS AND JGSM
WHICH HAVE VERIFIED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
   C. TD 23W WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN WEAK EVEN THOUGH UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND SOME
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE OFFSET BY THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF TD 23W AND COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
   D. SYSTEM DOES NOT MEET CRITERIA FOR WIND RADII.
3. FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//
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