WDPN31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W WARNING NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 090000Z TO 120000Z NOV 2005.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 23W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 670 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
   B. TD 23W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STEERING
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE SYSTEM IS STILL
SHALLOW AND WEAK AND IS THEREFORE BEING STEERED AT APPROXIMATELY 700
MB. THE RIDGE AT THAT LEVEL IS STRONG AND WILL CONTINUE TO GUIDE TD
23W IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION, MAKING LANDFALL ON CENTRAL LUZON
AROUND TAU 60. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST IN THE MID
TERM WHICH WILL PUT TD 23W ON THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE RIDGE
WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK PAST TAU 48. THE DY-
NAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NCEP GFS, EGRR, WBAR, COAMPS, NOGAPS AND
AFWA MM5 ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. DISAGREEMENT
AMONG THE AIDS ARISES FROM VARYING DEPICTIONS OF THE ORIENTATION OF
THE RIDGE. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. TD 23W HAS BEGUN TO REGAIN PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ON THE 
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM DUE TO IMPROVED OUTFLOW TO THE 
NORTH AND A DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. AFTER A 
MODERATE STRENGTHENING, IMPACT WITH LUZON WILL WEAKEN TD 23W UNTIL
ITS REEMERGENCE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AROUND TAU 72. 
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE
SIZED SYSTEM.   
3. FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//
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