WDPN31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W WARNING NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 301200Z OCT 2005 TO 041200Z NOV 2005.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
   B. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS TY 22W HAS TRACKED SLOWLY TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK MID-LEVEL STEERING. THE NORTH-
WESTERLY TRACK WILL CONTINUE AND SPEED OF ADVANCE WILL SLOWLY IN-
CREASE AS THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE WEST IS WEAKENED BY A MIDLAT-
ITUDE TROUGH OVER INDIA AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST BUILDS. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, JGSM, JTYM,
NCEP GFS, COAMPS, GFDN, MM5 AND WBAR ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SENARIO BEYOND TAU 24. THE DISAGREEMENT ARISES FROM VARYING
MODEL DEPICTIONS OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AND THE EXTENT THAT THE
EASTERN RIDGE BUILDS IN. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
ALL DYNAMIC AIDS. 
   C. LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RADIAL OUTFLOW WILL KEEP TY 22W
A STRONG TYPHOON OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. INTENSITY WILL VARY GREATLY
SHOULD THE TRACK DEVIATE SLIGHTLY RIGHT OR LEFT. THIS WOULD RESULT
IN A MUCH EARLIER LANDFALL AND A RAPID DEINTESIFICATION.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 301026Z SSM/I PASS AND FORE-
CAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE TO LARGE 
SYSTEM.
   E. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TY 22W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWEST 
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MIDLEVEL STEERING RIDGE BUILDING 
OVER THE LUZON STRAIT. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHERN
VIETNAM AND DISSIPATE OVER NORTHERN INDOCHINA.
3. FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//
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