WDPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 291200Z OCT TO 011200Z NOV 2005.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
   B. TS 22W HAS CONTINUED ITS SLOWING TREND OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TWO RIDGES. THE RIDGES ARE
WEAKENING IN RESPONSE TO A TRANSITING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
CHINA. AS THIS TROUGH TRAVERSES TO THE EAST, THE MIDLATITUDE RIDGE
WILL REORIENT AND BUILD IN TOWARDS THE WEST PLACING TS 21W ALONG ITS
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. THIS WILL MANIFEST ITSELF WITH INCREASED
SPEED PAST TAU 24 AND A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK. 
   C. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 22W IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THIS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AT
A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 36 BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL AROUND
TAU 48 AND DISSIPATING OVER INDOCHINA BY TAU 72.
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE
SIZED SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//
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