WDPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W WARNING NR 23//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 260000Z TO 280000Z SEP 2005.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 17W (DAMREY) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN, CHINA HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
   B. TY 17W HAS MADE LANDFALL ON HAINAN, CHINA AND WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MIDLATITUDE
STEERING RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA. TY 17W WILL MAKE 
FINAL LANDFALL IN VIETNAM NEAR TAU 24 AND THEN DISSIPATE OVER NORTHERN
LAOS BY TAU 48. THE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, WBAR, GFDN,
NCEP GFS, JTYM, JGSM, COAMPS, TCLAPS AND AFWA MM5 ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR AND MM5 WHICH ARE POLEWARD
OUTLIERS. THIS FORECAST IS BASED UPON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS PLACED ON WBAR AND MM5.
   C. TY 17W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN
OF HAINAN. THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY WILL BRIEFLY STABILIZE AS IT TRACKS
AWAY FROM HAINAN BEFORE WEAKENING AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING AS IT
TRACKS INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA..
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 252247Z QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECAST
WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//
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