WDPN31 PGTW 241500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 17W (DAMREY)WARNING NR 17// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 241200Z TO 271200Z SEP 2005. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (DAMREY) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (DAMREY) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. B. TS 17W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERI- PHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN ASIA. TS 17W WILL TRACK ACROSS HAINAN ISLAND BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY TAUS 24 AND 36 AND MAKE LANDFALL IN VIETNAM AFTER TAU 48. THE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, WBAR, NCEP GFS, GFDN, JYTM, JGSM, COAMPS, TCLAPS AND AFWA MM5 ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR WHICH DEPICTS A MORE POLEWARD TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS BASED UPON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS PLACED ON WBAR. C. TS 17W IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE TERRAIN OF HAINAN ISLAND AND VIETNAM AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 241027Z QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM. 3. FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO// NNNN