WDPN31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 17W (DAMREY) WARNING NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 221200Z TO 271200Z SEP 2005.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (DAMREY) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
   B. TS 17W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN ASIA. THIS RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD
WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, EGRR, WBAR, NCEP GFS, GFDN, JGSM, COAMPS, TCLAPS AND AFWA MM5
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK, BUT VARY ON SPEED OF MOVEMENT WITH
GFDN AS THE FASTEST SPEED. THIS FORECAST IS BASED UPON A CONSENSUS OF ALL
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. TS 17W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT SLIGHTLY LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE AS THE CONVECTION REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND WEAK. THE SYSTEM WILL NOT
INTENSIFY ABOVE TS STRENGTH AS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS WEAK.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 221013Z SSMI PASS. FORECAST WIND
RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM.
   E. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 17W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA INTO NORTHERN VEITNAM AND BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE BY TAU 96 AND WILL BE FULLY DISSIPATED BY THE END OF THE FORE-
CAST PERIOD. 
3. FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//
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