WDPN31 PGTW 201500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESION 17W WARNING NR 01// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 201200Z TO 231200Z SEP 2005. A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES IS A MODERATELY ORGANIZED SYSTEM THAT HAS CONSOLIDATED TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY EXISTING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TD 17W HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. B. TD 17W IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER A COMBINED SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING INFLUENCE FROM A RIDGE CENTER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE POLEWARD OF TD 17W CENTERED IN THE EAST CHINA SEA. TD 17W WILL TURN MORE WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE SHIFTS MORE EXCLUSIVELY TO THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, WBAR AND NCEP GFS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. C. TD 17W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT AN APPROXIMATELY CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT TRACKS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST PHILIPPINES. D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE TO SMALL SIZED SYSTEM. 3. FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO// NNNN