WDPN31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 16W WARNING NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 171200Z TO 190000Z SEP 2005.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (VICENTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
   B. TS 16W CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH-
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED SOUTH OF JAPAN. 
THIS MOTION WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS IN APPROXIMATELY 6
HOURS. THE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, JGSM, GFDN, GFS,
MM5, TCLI, JTYM, COAMPS AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. TS 16W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A TROPICAL STORM AND THEN
RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER INDOCHINA.
3. FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//
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