WDPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 16W WARNING NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 171200Z TO 190000Z SEP 2005.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (VICENTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
   B. TS 16W IS RAPIDLY TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER EASTERN CHINA. THE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, JGSI, GFDN, AVN, MM5, TCLI
AND WBAR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
WBAR, THE POLEWARD OUTLIER. THE MODELS DO DISAGREE WITH THE SPEED OF
MOVEMENT ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER CENTRAL VIETNAM. THIS FORECAST IS
A CONCENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, WITH LESS EMPHASIS PLACED
ON WBAR.
   C. TS 16W IS FORECAST TO STEADILY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT TRACKS
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS VIETNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME VERY DISORGANIZED AS IT BEGINS
TO INTERACT WITH LAND AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF HANOI, VIETNAM AT APPROXIMATELY
TAU 24 AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 36.  
3. FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//
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