WDPN31 PGTW 170300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 16W WARNING NR 03// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 170000Z TO 200000Z SEP 2005. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (VICENTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NHA TRANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. B. AFTER NEARLY 36 HOURS OF WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE, TS 16W IS NOW TRACKING NORTHERLY ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A FINGER OF THE SUB- TROPICAL RIDGE. THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS UNTIL THE RIDGE REORIENTS AND STEERS THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST. TS 16W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 48. HOWEVER, SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH COULD RESULT IN A LAND- FALL CLOSER TO TAU 36 DUE TO THE GEOGRAPHY OF INDOCHINA. THE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, JTYM, JGSM, WBAR, GFS, GFDN, COAMPS, AND TCLAPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS A CONCENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. C. TS 16W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DUE TO AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IMPINGING ON ITS NORTHWESTERN QUAD- RANT. ADDITIONALLY, MODERATE WIND SHEAR AND LAND EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT CONSOLIDATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 161318Z SSM/I PASS. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM. 3. FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE// NNNN