WDPN31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W WARNING NR 32//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 060000Z TO 081800Z SEP 2005.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (NABI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM SOUTH-
EAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE
RAGGED EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD-FILLED.
   B. TY 14W HAS BEGUN TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERI-
PHERY OF THE SUBTROPIAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN.
TY 14W IS FORECAST TO RECURVE AND ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST
AFTER TAU 12. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS KOREA
AND INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN IS FORECAST TO FACILITATE THE EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION OF TY 14W AFTER TAU 24. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, COAMPS, AFWA MM5, NCEP GFS, UKMET
EGRR, JGSM, JTYM, TCLAPS AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, AFWA MM5 FORECASTS A SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION OF THE STEERING RIDGE, AND THUS A WESTWARD JOG PRIOR
TO RECURVATURE. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAIL-
ABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. DUE TO DISRUPTED LOW LEVEL INFLOW, AND INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ALOFT, AN THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
TY 14W CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES KYUSHU. FURTHER WEAKEN-
ING IS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE FORECAST AS TY 14W TRACKS ACROSS JAPAN
AND INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TY 14W IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL BY TAU 24, AND TO COMPLETE THIS
PROCESS BY TAU 48.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON SURFACE AND RADAR OBSERVA-
TIONS AND A 052128Z QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED
ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A LARGE SIZED SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH LAND, AND
AFTER TAU 24, FOR A SYSTEM UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.
3. FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//