WDPN31 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W WARNING NR 8//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 310000Z AUG TO 050000Z SEP 2005.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (NABI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 35 NM NORTHEAST
OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
   B. TY 14W IS SITUATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RECEDE
EASTWARD AS TY 13W (TALIM) WHICH IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE AND A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH LOCATED OVER
SOUTH EASTERN CHINA MOVES EASTWARD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CON-
SISTING OF NCEP GFS, COAMPS, EGRR, GFDN, JGSM, JTYM, NOGAPS, TCLAPS,
MM5, AND WBAR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MM5 WHICH IS A POLEWARD OUTLIER. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON
MM5.
   C. DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS, TY 14W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST HAS PROVIDED A GOOD EASTWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. A WELL DEFINED EYE DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS
AND AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO STEADILY INTENSIFY. BY TAU 72 TY 14W IS EXPECTED TO REACH
ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 302038Z QUIKSCAT PASS AND
302004Z AMSU SATELLITE PASS. THE FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON
CLIMATOLOGY FOR A LARGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
   E. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN CHINA WILL CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES OVER
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THIS WEAKNESS WILL ALLOW TY 14W TO BEGIN TO
TRACK MORE POLEWARD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY
IN THE LATER FORECAST AS IT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
3. FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//