WDPN31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W WARNING NR 4//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 300000Z AUG TO 040000Z SEP 2005.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (NABI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
WEST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. 
   B. TS 14W WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO 
BUILD WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72, THEREBY PROVIDING A CONSISTENT WESTWARD
STEERING MECHANISM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NCEP GFS,
COAMPS, EGRR, GFDN, JGSM, JTYM, NOGAPS, TCLAPS, AND WBAR ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO THROUGH TAU 72. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY SUPPRESSING CONVECTION
ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF TS 14W HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALY-
SIS INDICATES A GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TS 14w IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY AT OR ABOVE A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT CONTINUES TO
HAVE GOOD RADIAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 291924Z QUIKSCAT PASS AND
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED
SYSTEM.
   E. A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING EASTERN ASIA IS FORECAST
TO PASS NORTH OF THE STEERING RIDGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS
TROUGH SHOULD CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND INITIATE A POLEWARD
TURN BY TAU 96. AT THIS TIME, TS 14W WILL SLOW DOWN AND APPROACH PEAK
INTENSITY AS IT ENTERS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE RIDGE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.     
3. FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//