WDPN32 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 13W WARNING NR 20//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 310000Z AUG TO 030000Z SEP 2005.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 13W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
   B. TY 13W CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH-
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
JAPAN. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH AND ORIENTA-
TION THROUGH TAU 48, KEEPING THE SYSTEM ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK. INITIAL LANDFALL ON NORTHERN TAIWAN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
NEAR TAU 24. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AS THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF TAWAIN WILL POSSIBLY CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO STALL ON THE
EASTERN COAST. AFTER MOVING OVER TAIWAN, TY 13W WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST CHINA AROUND TAU 48. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, COAMPS, EGRR, GFDN,
NCEP GFS, JGSM, JTYM, TCLAPS, MM5 AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO.
   C. INTERNAL STORM FLUCTUATIONS, POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH AN EYE-
WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, HAVE SLIGHTLY WEAKENED TY 13W OVER THE LAST
12 HOURS. NEVERTHELESS, THE STORM REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVOR-
ABLE FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO AN INITIAL LANDFALL ON TAIWAN
AROUND TAU 24. SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING WILL BEGIN ONCE THE STORM
STRIKES AND TRAVERSES MOUNTAINOUS TAIWAN. DESPITE REEMERGING OVER
THE TAIWAN STRAIT, THE LACK OF MOIST AIR INFLOW DUE TO PROXIMITY
WITH CHINA SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY RESTRENGTHENING PRIOR TO ITS SECOND
LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN AND IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 72.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 302143Z AMSU-B PASS AND
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A AVERAGE-SIZED
SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//
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