WDPN32 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 13W WARNING NR 16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 300000Z AUG TO 030000Z SEP 2005.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 13W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
   B. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN. THIS RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48, STEERING THE STORM TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD AN INITIAL LANDAFLL IN TAIWAN. ONCE THE SYSTEM
CROSSES TAIWAN, IT WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN CHINA AND
MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL BEFORE TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, AFWA MM5, COAMPS, EGRR, GFDN, NCEP GFS, JGSM,
JTYM, TCLAPS AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO THROUGH
TAU 48. HOWEVER, WBAR IS A POLEWARD OUTLIER, POSSIBLY INDICATING A
WEAKER STEERING RIDGE, WHILE JTYM AND TCLAPS ARE EQUATORWARD OUTLIERS,
INDICATING A STRONGER RIDGE. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. TY 13W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME WITH
GOOD OUTFLOW MAINTAINED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STORM. THEREAFTER,
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN BY TAU 48 AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND
SURFACE INFLOW IS DISRUPTED BY TAIWAN. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO 
RAPIDLY WEAKEN BY TAU 72 AFTER MAKING LANDFALL IN EASTERN CHINA.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 291857Z AMSU PASS AND A 292147Z
SSM/I PASS. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A LARGE-
SIZED SYSTEM.
   E. TY 13W IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO SOUTHEASTERN CHINA IN THE EX-
TENDED PERIOD AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 96.
3. FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//
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