WDPN32 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 13W WARNING NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 291200Z AUG TO 031200Z SEP 2005.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 13W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM SOUTH-
EAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
   B. TY 13W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN. THIS
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD, WHICH WILL KEEP TY 13W ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. BETWEEN TAUS 48 AND 72, TY 13W IS FORECAST
TO CROSS NORTHERN TAIWAN AND APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN CHINA.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, AFWA MM5, COAMPS,
EGRR, GFDN, NCEP GFS, JGSM, JTYM, TCLAPS AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD AGREE-
MENT WITH THIS SCENARIO THROUGH TAU 48 AND IN POOR AGREEMENT THERE-
AFTER. JTYM DEPICTS A STRONGER STEERING RIDGE AND THUS A MORE EQUATOR-
WARD TRACK FOR TY 13W, WHILE NCEP GFS DEPICTS A WEAKER RIDGE AND A
MORE POLEWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 72. TCLAPS FORECASTS A SHARP EQUATORWARD
TURN AFTER TAU 48. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAIL-
ABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON JTYM AND TCLAPS AFTER TAU 48.
   C. TY 13W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS THROUGH
AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
IS FORECAST TO PROVIDE GOOD OUTFLOW THAT WILL AID CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION.
TY 13W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING AFTER TAU 48 AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT
WITH LAND AND ENTRAIN DRY, CONTINENTAL AIR.
   D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A 
LARGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
   E. TY 13W IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO SOUTHEASTERN CHINA AFTER TAU 72.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER LAND AND DISSIPATE BY TAU
120.
3. FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//
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