WDPN32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W WARNING NR 19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 241200Z AUG TO 251200Z AUG 2005.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
745 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
   B. TS 12W IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHEAST. A DIGGING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THE WESTERLIES IN
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH AND CAUSE TS 12W TO CONTINUE
ACCELERATING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, AFWA MM5, GFDN, NCEP GFS, JGSM, JTYM,
UKMET EGRR AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS.
   C. TS 12W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INTO AN ENVIRON-
MENT OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL 
TRANSITION BY TAU 12 AND TO COMPLETE THIS TRANSITION BY TAU 24.
   D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY
FOR A SMALL SYSTEM UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.
3. FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//

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