WDPN32 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W WARNING NR 1//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 200300Z AUG TO 230300Z AUG 2005.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM
EAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM, LIKE TS 11W (MAWAR) TO THE WEST, IS IN A
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 
   B. TD 12W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYS-
TEM. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK IS LOW GIVEN A LIMITED NUMBER
OF AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF POSSIBLE
INTERACTION BETWEEN TD 12W AND TS 11W.  
   C. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE GIVEN ITS PROXIMITY TO TS 11W. NONETHELESS, TD 12W SHOULD REMAIN 
IN A LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, AND GREATER INTENSIFICATION IS
POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM OUTFLOW IS NOT IMPINGED UPON BY TD 12W.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 192256Z SSM/I PASS AND FORECAST
WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A SMALL SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//