WDPN31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W WARNING NR 29//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 261200Z AUG TO 271200Z AUG 2005.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260
NM NORTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
   B. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TS 11W HAS BEGUN THE
EARLY STAGES OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND IS EXPECTED TO BE COM-
PLETE WITHIN 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN,
NCEP GFS, JGSM, JTYM, UKMET, TCLAPS, AFWA MM5 AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR. THIS FORE-
CAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS
EMPHASIS ON WBAR.
   C. TY 11W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED
INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ENCOUNTERS HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TS 11W IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE
TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 24.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 261024Z SSMI SATELITTE IMAGERY
PASS. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A SYSTEM
UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
3. FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//
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