WDPN31 PGTW 230300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W WARNING NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 230000Z AUG TO 280000Z AUG 2005.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 620 NM
SOUTH OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS AND MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. 
   B. TY 11W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG 
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO 
THE EAST. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
ESTABLISHED CAUSING TY 11W TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.
TY 11W IS FORECAST TO CREST THE RIDGE AXIS AT ABOUT TAU 36 AND MAKE
LANDFALL SOUTH OF KYOTO, JAPAN BETWEEN TAUS 48 AND 72. TY 11W IS 
FORECAST TO RECURVE STRONGLY TO THE EAST AS IT TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN
JAPAN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG WESTERLY MID-LATITUDE FLOW. THE
DYNAMICAL AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, COAMPS, NCEP GFS, EGRR,
JGSM, JTYM, TCLAPS, MM5 AND WBAR ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. EGRR DEPICTS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STEERING RIDGE
WEAKER AND THEREFORE A TIGHTER RECURVATURE OF TY 11W. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. 
   C. TY 11W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 
24 TO 36 HOURS THEN WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER INCREASED 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND ENTRAINS DRY AIR.
TY 11W WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN BETWEEN TAUS 48 AND 72 AS IT TRACKS
OVER LAND AND INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN OF JAPAN.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 222146Z SSMI AND 222045Z
QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A
SMALL TO AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM.
   E. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TY 11W WILL TRACK OVER 
THE SOUTHEASTERN SEA OF JAPAN, NORTHERN JAPAN AND INTO OPEN 
WATER EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, BEGINS TO INTERACT
WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WITH THE TERRAIN OF JAPAN. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN UNDERGO THE EARLY STAGES OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL COMPLETE
TRANSITION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED STORM NUMBER AND SPELLING
IN PARA 2.C.
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//
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