WDPN31 PGTW 210300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W WARNING NR 7// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 210300Z AUG TO 260300Z AUG 2005. A. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM SOUTH OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES A VERY SMALL EYE AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. B. TY 11W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, COAMPS, GFS, EGRR, JGSM, JTYM, TCLAPS, MM5 AND WBAR. C. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. SINCE THE STORM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS PROBABLE THROUGH TAU 72. HOWEVER, RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS NOT FORECAST PAST TAU 12. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN COULD PROVIDE INCREASED OUTFLOW IN THE MID PERIOD. D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 201959Z QUIKSCAT PASS AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A SMALL TO AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM. E. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY RECURVE AS IT CRESTS THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE. NONETHELESS, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS RECURVATURE. EGRR IS AN EASTWARD OUTLIER AS IT DEPICTS A MORE PRONOUNCED MIDLATITUDE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ASIA AND A RETREATING STEERING RIDGE. GFDN IS A WESTWARD OUTLIER, AS IT DEPICTS A WEAKER MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND STRONGER STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND BEYOND TAU 96. 3. FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE// NNNN