WDPN31 PGTW 110300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W WARNING NR 03// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 110000Z JUL TO 140000Z AUG 2005. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF MANILA PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. B. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC WITH A WESTWARD EXTENSION LOCATED OVER EASTERN CHINA. TS 10W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE TAIWAN STRAITS TOWARDS CHINA. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, COAMPS, NCEP GFS, EGRR AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE MODEL FIELDS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT PROPAGATES ACROSS CHINA INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN MID FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE DEEP ENOUGH TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM THAT WOULD FACILITATE A POLEWARD TURN OF TS 10W LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. C. TS 10W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS NOW MODERATE TO HIGH. THE FORECAST IS FOR THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE OUTFLOW ON THE NORTHERN HALF OF TS 10W IS BEING INHIBITED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 102057Z QUICKSCAT PASS AND CLIMA- TOLOGY FOR A LARGE SIZED SYSTEM. E. TS 10W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH- WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INTO EASTERN CHINA. TS 10W WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT INTERACTS WITH LANDMASS AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. 3. FORECAST TEAM: DELTA// NNNN