WDPN32 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W WARNING NR 1//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 310000Z JUL TO 030000Z AUG 2005.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 09W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
   B. TD 09W IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. TD 09W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN TURN MORE POLEWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING MID-LEVEL PERIPHERAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, COAMPS, NCEP GFS,
EGRR AND WBAR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. DYNAMICAL AIDS,
PARTICULARLY COAMPS, DEPICT MUCH STRONGER POLEWARD STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST ON TD 09W IN THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE
AIDS, WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON COAMPS AND AN INCREASED EMPHASIS ON
PERSISTENCE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
   C. TD 09W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A RATE SLIGHTLY IN EXCESS OF
CLIMATOLOGY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TD 09W IS FORECAST TO TRACK
IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF TD 09W
CENTERED AT APPROXIMATELY 20.0N 158.0E.
   D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY AND A
302039Z QUIKSCAT PASS FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//

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