WDPN31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 300000Z JUL TO 010000Z AUG 2005.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (WASHI) HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AND MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF HAINAN ISLAND IN THE VICINITY OF XINGLONG, CHINA.
   B. TS 08W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS HAINAN ISLAND
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE FROM A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST
CENTERED OVER THE RYUKYU ISLANDS. TS 08W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM BUILDS AND THE
GRADIENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF EGRR, NCEP GFS, NOGAPS, COAMPS, GFDN, JTYM,
JGSM AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS
PLACED ON GFDN.
   C. TS 08W HAS REACHED MAX INTENSITY AS IT REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT
OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN OF
HAINAN ISLAND. TS 08W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN SOME ORGANIZATION AS IT
TRACKS OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN BETWEEN TAUS 12 AND 24 BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL OVER VIETNAM AT APPROXIMATELY 310600Z AND THEN DISSIPATING
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
3. FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//