WDPN32 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W WARNING NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 240000Z TO 290000Z JUL 2005.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 
NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER,
A 232121Z SSM/I PASS REVEALS AN ORGANIZING SYSTEM WITH A MORE COMPACT 
CIRCULATION THAN 24 HOURS AGO. CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE AT T3.5 (55 KT). 
   B. TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 72 HOURS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE ANCHORED EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE TRANSLATION SPEED HAS BEEN
LOWERED AS THE SYSTEM IS SITUATED NEAR A COL FORMED BETWEEN AN EASTERN
STEERING RIDGE AND A SECOND RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF 07W.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, COAMPS, GFDN, TCLAPS,
NCEP GFS, JGSM, JTYM, EGRR, AFWA MM5 AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. 
   C. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY IN THE EARLY TAUS AS IT
BECOMES INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED WITH ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION DE-
VELOPING NEAR THE LLCC. INTENSIFICATION WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN 
CLIMATOLOGICAL AS OUTFLOW AND CONVECTION ARE BEING INHIBITED IN
THE NORTHERN QUADRANTS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH-
WEST. WHILE THE STORM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, A LESS THAN FAVORABLE MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT BEYOND TAU 48 WILL
MINIMIZE THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONGER INTENSIFICATION.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 232024Z QUIKSCAT PASS AND
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED
SYSTEM.
   E. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 07W WILL CREST THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS AND TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AT 96 AND 120 HOURS AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND AND THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES THAT ARE FORECAST TO STRENGHTEN OVER CENTRAL HONSHU, JAPAN.

3. FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//