WDPN32 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 220000Z TO 270000Z JUL 2005.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
440 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT TS 07W IS A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
   B. TS 07W HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE BUILDING MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL
PROVIDE THE PRIMARY STEERING FLOW AFTER TAU 36, WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A TRANSITION TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
COAMPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, JGSM, JTYM, UKMET EGRR AND WBAR ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. DIFFERENCES IN THE DY-
NAMICAL MODELS RESULT FROM VARIATION IN THE DEPICTION OF THE STEER-
ING RIDGE AFTER TAU 12.
   C. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 72 AS THE
SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES. STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW AND CROSS-EQUATORIAL
INFLOW INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH THE MID-PERIOD.
   D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR
AN LARGE SIZED SYSTEM.
   E. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 07W IS FORECAST TO CREST THE RIDGE
AXIS AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING RIDGE. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU
96 AS IS ENCOUNTERS INCREASED SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE 
WESTERLIES AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
3. FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//

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