WDPN31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W WARNING NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 230000Z TO 241200Z JUL 2005.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (NALGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 890 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
REVEALS AN ASYMMETRIC CLOUD SHIELD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ADDITIONALLY, A 230028Z
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS LIMITED CONVECTION AND DISORGANIZATION OF THE
SYSTEM.   
   B. TS 06W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, AFWA MM5, JGSM, JTYM,
TCLAPS, UKMET EGRR AND WBAR ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO DUE
TO INCREASING WEAKNESS IN THE VORTICITY SIGNATURE AND STORM STRUCTURE.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND TRAVERSES LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 36.
3. FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//
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