WDPN31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR DEPRESSION 06W WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 200000Z TO 230000Z JUL 2005.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W HAS FORMED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, AND HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT CONVECTION HAS NEARLY WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC).
   B. TD 06W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF EGRR, NCEP GFS, WBAR, AND 
NOGAPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. TD 06W SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE FOR THE FIRST
48 HOURS DUE TO A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER
LOWER SST AND WEAKEN. 
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 191848Z QUIKSCAT PASS AND
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//
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