WDPN31 PGTW 180300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05W WARNING NR 27// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 180000Z TO 191200Z JUL 2005. A. TYPHOON (TY) 05W (HAITANG) HAS MADE LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF HUALIEN, TAIWAN, APPROXIMATELY 85 NM SOUTH OF TAIPEI. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS THAT OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS TY 05W HAS TRACKED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THEN MADE A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST IN THE PAST 03 HOURS. THE EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURED AND THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED OVER LAND. B. TY 05W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD ACROSS TAIWAN, THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CHINA BY TAU 36. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF COAMPS, UKMET, NCEP GFS, JGSM, JTYM, MM5, NOGAPS, TCLAPS, AND WBAR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF THE CURRENT TRACK THROUGH TAU 12, THEN ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS THROUGH TAU 36. C. TY 05W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND OVER TAIWAN. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AFTER IT CROSSES THE TAIWAN STRAIT INTO SOUTHEASTERN CHINA BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 36. D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A LARGE-SIZED SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH LAND THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. 3. FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO// NNNN