WDPN31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 05W WARNING NR 23//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 170000Z TO 200000Z JUL 2005.
   A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 05W (HAITANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320
NM SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST SLOWING 
TO 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A DEFINED EYE WHICH HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN 
HALF OF THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
   B. STY 05W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE 
ANTICYCLONE SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN AND A BUILDING RIDGE
OVER EASTERN CHINA POLEWARD OF STY 05W. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO 
CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST IN THIS STEERING REGIME UNTIL IT 
MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF TAIWAN IN JUST OVER 24 HOURS.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF COAMPS, EGRR, GFDN, NCEP GFS,
JGSM, JTYM, MM5, NOGAPS, TCLAPS, AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 
THE EXCEPTION OF TCLAPS AND AFWA MM5 WHICH DEPICT A MORE EQUATORWARD
TRACK OF STY 05W. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMIC AIDS
WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON TCLAPS AND MM5 AT TAU 48 AND 72.
   C. STY 05W IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT NEARS TAIWAN AND INTERACTS 
WITH LAND. ONCE IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER TAIWAN AFTER TAU 24, STY 05W WILL BEGIN TO
DECOUPLE AND WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY. STY 05W IS THEN FORECAST TO
MOVE OUT INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT BY TAU 48 AND OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA
BY TAU 72 AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND.
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A LARGE-SIZED
SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH LAND LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
3. FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//

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