WDPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W WARNING NR 17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 151200Z TO 201200Z JUL 2005.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 05W (HAITANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED BY THE EAST-WEST
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED SOUTH OF JAPAN. THE STORM
INTENSIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS, AND THE CURRENT
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T6.0 (115 KT). ADDITIONALLY, A 150959Z SSM/I IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-
DEFINED EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTION COMPLETEY ENCIRCLING THE STORM
CENTER. 
   B. THE INITIAL TRACK OF TY 05W WILL REMAIN TOWARD THE WEST.
HOWEVER, THE STORM WILL SHIFT MORE POLEWARD BEYOND 12 HOURS, AS
AN EXTENSION OF THE STR BUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TY 05W. THIS
WILL INITIATE A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION, BRINGING THE STORM OVER
TAIWAN BY TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NCEP GFS,
COAMPS, EGRR, JGSM, JTYM, NOGAPS, WBAR, GFDN, TCLAPS, AND AFWA MM5
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO THROUGH TAU 72. THIS FORE-
CAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. TY 05W SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS AS THE STORM REMAINS IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND FAV-
ORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY IN-
TENSIFY BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST AS THERE IS NO MECHANISM TO 
ENHANCE STORM OUTFLOW. 
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 150924Z QUIKSCAT PASS AND
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGED-SIZED
SYSTEM.
   E. THE LONG RANGE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE STORM ACROSS TAIWAN
AND INTO CHINA BY 96 HOURS. THE STORM WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT
MAKES AN INITIAL LANDFALL OVER TAIWAN AND A SECOND LANDFALL IN
SOUTHEAST CHINA.   
3. FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//

NNNN