WDPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W WARNING NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 150000Z TO 200000Z JUL 2005.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 05W (HAITANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS.
   B. TY 05W WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT FROM AN EQUATORWARD TO POLEWARD TRACK
OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS A BETA GYRE BUILDS AN EXTENSION OF THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS EXTENSION WILL CAUSE
THE STEERING CURRENT TO TRANSITION FROM THE NORTH TO EAST-NORTHEAST
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, RESULTING IN A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72
HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF AVN, COAMPS, EGRR,
JGSM, JTYM, NOGAPS, WBAR, GFDN, TCLAPS, AND MM5 ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TCLAPS, WHICH DEPICTS A MORE EQUATORWARD TRACK.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
WITH LESS EMPHASIS GIVEN TO TCLAPS.
   C. TY 05W WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT 
MOVES INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION. INFLOW
INTO THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE TYPHOON HAS DIMINISHED AS THE SYSTEM
MOVED AWAY FROM A TUTT CELL LOCATED TO ITS EAST. IN ADDITION, VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMA-
TOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGED-SIZED SYSTEM.
   E. DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO 
AGREEMENT AND SHIFT TY 05W BACK TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AFTER ENTERING
THE EAST CHINA SEA AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS NORTH, AND STEERS IT INTO
CHINA. TY 05W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND MASSES
OF TAIWAN AND CHINA AND BEGINS TO DISSIPATE.
3. FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//
NNNN