WDPN31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W WARNING NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 131200Z TO 181200Z JUL 2005.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (HAITANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY REVEALS A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH WELL-DEFINED OUT-
FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY.
   B. TS 05W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A SOUTHWEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHEASTWARD PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED NEAR JAPAN. TS 05W SHOULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE SPEED BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 48 AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD IN
RESPONSE TO MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. ADDITIONALLY, THE TRACK WILL
BECOME MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 48.THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF AVN, COAMPS, EGRR, GFDN, JGSM, JTYM, MM5, NOGAPS,
TCLAPS, AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MM5
WHICH DEPICTS A STRONG EQUATORWARD TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON MM5.
   C. THE INTENSITY OF TS 05W SHOULD INCREASE STEADILY THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AS DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME SUBSTANTIALLY STRONGER
AND OUTFLOW INCREASES. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE, FAVORABLE OUTFLOW SHOULD OFFSET ANY STAGNATION.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 130831Z QUIKSCAT PASS.
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGED-SIZED
SYSTEM.
   E. DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TS 05W IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK NEAR OKINAWA AS A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER
THE EAST CHINA SEA. INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN DUE TO
SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.
3. FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//
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