WDPN31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W WARNING NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 130000Z TO 180000Z JUL 2005.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (HAITANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS.
   B. TS 05W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE SPEED OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT IS STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO
THE NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ROUGHLY DUE WEST FROM TAU 48 TO TAU
72 AS THE STEERING RIDGE PROPAGATES EASTWARD. THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE 
STEERING RIDGE WILL ENHANCE THE GRADIENT LEVEL FLOW, INCREASING THE
FORWARD SPEED OF TS 05W THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NCEP GFS, GFDN, EGRR, NOGAPS, WBAR, JGSM,
JTYM, MM5, COAMPS, AND TCLAPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF EGRR, WHICH DEPICTS A MORE POLEWARD AND ZONAL TRACK. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS
ON EGRR.
   C. TS 05W IS TRACKING IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
INDUCED BY STRONG NORTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. TS 05W IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 48 AS THIS SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND A LACK OF WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW OFFSET MORE RAPID INTENSIFI-
CATION. APPROACHING TAU 72 TS 05W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY
AS THE STEERING RIDGE BECOMES SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST AND OVERALL OUTFLOW
IMPROVES.
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE TO 
SMALL SIZED SYSTEM.
   E.  BY TAU 72, TS 05W WILL SLOW AND BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD TAIWAN AND THE RYUKYU ISLANDS IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGE AXIS. TS 05W SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR LESSENS AND OUTFLOW IMPROVES.
3. FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//

NNNN