WDPN31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (HAITANG) WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 120000Z TO 170000Z JUL 2005.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (HAITANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM 
EAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS.  
   B. TS 05W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TS 05W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS UNDER MODERATE STEERING INFLUENCE FROM THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH HAS PROVIDED THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE
FOR THE SYSTEM TO THIS POINT. THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM WILL SHIFT
TO THE RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST OF TS 05W OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 
HOURS. BEYOND APPROXIMATELY TAU 24 TS 05W WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD 
AND INCREASE SPEED AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN,
COAMPS, JGSM, JTYM, UKMET, NCEP GFS AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. TS 05W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK EQUATORWARD OF
THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. RAPID TRANSLATION OF THE SYSTEM
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTHWEST OF 05W IS 
EXPECTED TO INHIBIT OUTFLOW AND STRONG DEVELOPMENT. 
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A MEDIUM-SIZED 
SYSTEM.
   E. THE EXTENDED FORECAST CALLS FOR TS 05W TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY.
MODEL FIELDS DEPICT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AT APPROXIMATELY TAU 96 THAT WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TRACK SLIGHTLY POLEWARD.
3. FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//

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