WDPN31 PGTW 070300 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W (NESAT) WARNING NR 32//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 070000Z TO 110000Z JUN 2005.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. 
   B. TY 04W IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM. A SLOWER POLE-
WARD TRACK IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE NORTHEASTERN
INFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A DOWNSTREAM MID-LATITUDE TROUGH HAS DI-
MINISHED. THE UPSTREAM MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
CHINA IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT TY 04W BACK TO A MORE RAPID
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
NCEP GFS, JTYM, JGSM, MM5, UKMET, COAMPS, GFDN AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
   C. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EROSION OF THE DEEP CONV-
ECTION IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AS TY 04W ENCOUNTERS DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST. CONTINUED WEAK-
NING IS EXPECTED DUE TO CONTINUED EROSION ON THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
AND INCREASING SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM BAROCLINIC TROUGH.
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AFTER TAU 48.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 062042z QUIKSCAT IMAGE.
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED
SYSTEM AT THROUGH TAU 72. TAU 96 WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY
FOR A STORM UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
   E. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TY 04W IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH
THE APPROACHING BAROCLINIC ZONE, WEAKEN, ACCELERATE AND COMPLETE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AFTER TAU 72.
3. FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//
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